Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.538348 1.600535 1.665097 1.737366 1.816295 1.900219 1.996648
2025-12-21 1.451416 1.532694 1.619731 1.720532 1.834933 1.961821 2.114776
2025-12-28 1.408307 1.504745 1.610617 1.736736 1.884650 2.054986 2.269679
2026-01-04 1.379555 1.488852 1.611442 1.761165 1.942098 2.157976 2.442275
2026-01-11 1.339765 1.456959 1.590589 1.757023 1.963057 2.216219 2.562480
2026-01-18 1.309211 1.433511 1.577377 1.759829 1.990886 2.283002 2.698018
2026-01-25 1.265785 1.392511 1.540715 1.731073 1.976103 2.292425 2.754928
2026-02-01 1.235804 1.366094 1.520094 1.720533 1.983019 2.329589 2.852707
2026-02-08 1.207176 1.340012 1.498481 1.707149 1.984640 2.358601 2.940127
2026-02-15 1.180813 1.315623 1.477786 1.693581 1.984623 2.384425 3.024167
2026-02-22 1.164428 1.302794 1.470801 1.697080 2.007283 2.443137 3.165200
2026-03-01 1.134154 1.271750 1.439662 1.667287 1.982128 2.430077 3.186970
2026-03-08 1.113374 1.252596 1.423773 1.658107 1.986656 2.463240 3.294030
2026-03-15 1.091360 1.231213 1.404241 1.643065 1.981792 2.481410 3.376761
2026-03-22 1.083351 1.227216 1.406887 1.657991 2.020497 2.569357 3.597927
2026-03-29 1.078861 1.227444 1.414861 1.680320 2.071025 2.680134 3.882779
2026-04-05 1.064328 1.214280 1.404640 1.676622 2.082063 2.726730 4.047050
2026-04-12 1.053020 1.204946 1.399138 1.679215 2.102575 2.790663 4.260646
2026-04-19 1.031349 1.181601 1.374200 1.653073 2.077099 2.772767 4.286773
2026-04-26 1.016840 1.167311 1.361091 1.643487 2.077055 2.799609 4.422708
2026-05-03 1.002009 1.152273 1.346564 1.631296 2.072181 2.817219 4.539848
2026-05-10 0.987731 1.137668 1.332260 1.618924 2.066355 2.832508 4.654475
2026-05-17 0.979676 1.131091 1.328704 1.622120 2.085693 2.895871 4.911080